Retirement Timing Meter
Is now a good time to retire?
Two people can save the same amount and retire a year apart, and end up with very different retirements. The years right after you stop working matter most. This meter reads six public signals tied to that risk and shows how they looked every month since 2000.
Educational, not financial advice. It's planning context, not a signal to quit (or stay) tomorrow. Nobody can time markets reliably, and your health, your work and your plan matter more than any reading.
Today: Very high risk. Several risk signs at once. Flexibility and a cash or bond buffer matter more.
As of Oct 14, 2026. Refreshed daily.
Today's reading
What's moving the needle
Each signal gets a 0-100 risk score. The bars show how risky each one looks today; the points show how much it adds to the total of 60.
- Stock valuations (Shiller CAPE)+35.0 pts
CAPE 40.7 · extreme risk (100/100) · as of Oct 14, 2026
- Distance from the market high+19.3 pts
1.3% below its high · extreme risk (96/100) · as of Oct 14, 2026
- Yield curve (10-year minus 3-month)+3.0 pts
+0.91 pts · moderate risk (30/100) · as of Oct 14, 2026
- Inflation (CPI, past 12 months)+2.7 pts
3.7% over 12 months · moderate risk (27/100) · as of September 2026
- Real interest rates (10-year TIPS)+0.0 pts
2.84% after inflation · low risk (0/100) · as of Oct 14, 2026
- Jobs (Sahm rule, real time)+0.0 pts
+0.00 pts · low risk (0/100) · as of September 2026
Since 2000
Every month, scored the same way
Each month uses only data that was public at the time. Green dots mark the lowest readings: the best times to retire since 2000, by this measure.
The best times to retire since 2000
Runs of months in the lowest tenth of all readings, and what happened to someone who retired at the lowest point: $1,000,000 in 60% US stocks and 40% Treasuries, taking 4% ($40,000) a year, raised with inflation. Dollars are in today's money.
Jul 2002 – Jun 2003
Lowest: April 2003, 18 · Low risk
- 10 years later
- $1,087,456
- Today, after 23 years
- $1,575,877
Portfolio return over the first 10 years: 4.9% a year after inflation.
May 2004 – Aug 2004
Lowest: May 2004, 26 · Moderate risk
- 10 years later
- $1,033,227
- Today, after 22 years
- $1,365,518
Portfolio return over the first 10 years: 4.7% a year after inflation.
Oct 2008 – Feb 2010
Lowest: December 2008, 12 · Low risk
- 10 years later
- $1,460,083
- Today, after 17 years
- $1,954,754
Portfolio return over the first 10 years: 7.2% a year after inflation.
Jun 2010 – Oct 2010
Lowest: August 2010, 22 · Moderate risk
- 10 years later
- $1,645,886
- Today, after 16 years
- $1,754,733
Portfolio return over the first 10 years: 8.5% a year after inflation.
What about March 2020? The crash was so fast that the monthly average only fell about 19% below the high, the CAPE was still near 25, and real yields were below zero. The meter read 44 · High risk. That's an honest miss: a monthly meter can't catch a four-week crash. Someone who retired that month with $1M and the 4% rule has $1,138,466 today.
The riskiest readings
- Jul 2020 – Apr 2022, peaking at 82 · Extreme risk in January 2021. Retiring that month with $1M and the 4% rule leaves $909,171 today, after 5.8 years.
- Mar 2024 – Feb 2025, peaking at 80 · Extreme risk in September 2024. Retiring that month with $1M and the 4% rule leaves $1,051,881 today, after 2.1 years.
These are too recent to have a 10-year result. The 2000 market peak reached 69 · Extreme risk, and those retirees had the worst decade in this record.
Checking our work
Did the meter match what retirees lived through?
We scored every month from January 2000 to October 2016 (202 start dates with a full 10 years of results) and compared each reading with that retiree's first decade.
- Low risk7.4% (14 months)
$1M with the 4% rule became $1,508,370 on average after 10 years
- Moderate risk5.9% (54 months)
$1M with the 4% rule became $1,239,701 on average after 10 years
- High risk5.2% (97 months)
$1M with the 4% rule became $1,143,204 on average after 10 years
- Very high risk3.4% (32 months)
$1M with the 4% rule became $921,068 on average after 10 years
- Extreme risk0.4% (5 months)
$1M with the 4% rule became $600,475 on average after 10 years
60/40 US stocks and 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Shiller data, through October 2026.
The pattern held. Lower readings were followed by better decades, and each step up the dial came with lower average returns. Across all start dates the correlation between the reading and the next 10 years' return was −0.62 (−1 would be a perfect inverse match).
Valuation did most of the work. The CAPE on its own matched 10-year returns even more closely (−0.89). In this short window, low real yields and recession signals were followed by good decades as often as bad ones (2009 and 2012, for example). We kept them, at lower weights, because they capture risks the CAPE can miss, like the inflation that sank 1966 retirees, and we didn't tune the weights to fit this period.
The limits are real. 2000-2016 holds fewer than two separate decades, so the start dates overlap heavily; a 30-year retirement isn't over for anyone in this window; and a good 10-year start doesn't guarantee a good 30 years.
| Retired | Meter reading | Return a year, after inflation | $1M after 10 years (4% rule) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 57 · Very high risk | 0.2% | $597,189 |
| 2001 | 64 · Very high risk | 1.2% | $661,862 |
| 2002 | 44 · High risk | 2.5% | $793,307 |
| 2003 | 21 · Moderate risk | 4.4% | $1,035,695 |
| 2004 | 32 · Moderate risk | 3.9% | $933,888 |
| 2005 | 34 · Moderate risk | 5% | $1,043,667 |
| 2006 | 44 · High risk | 4.3% | $988,468 |
| 2007 | 49 · High risk | 4.6% | $1,000,955 |
| 2008 | 49 · High risk | 5.8% | $1,146,017 |
| 2009 | 13 · Low risk | 7.5% | $1,511,407 |
| 2010 | 31 · Moderate risk | 8% | $1,556,392 |
| 2011 | 34 · Moderate risk | 8.2% | $1,574,873 |
| 2012 | 36 · High risk | 8% | $1,548,320 |
| 2013 | 45 · High risk | 5% | $1,167,673 |
| 2014 | 47 · High risk | 5% | $1,142,694 |
| 2015 | 51 · Very high risk | 4.9% | $1,091,009 |
| 2016 | 40 · High risk | 6.3% | $1,298,543 |
| 2017 | 53 · Very high risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2018 | 64 · Very high risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2019 | 53 · Very high risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2020 | 67 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2021 | 82 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2022 | 79 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2023 | 60 · Very high risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2024 | 70 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2025 | 71 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
| 2026 | 70 · Extreme risk | Too soon | Too soon |
How it works
Six signals, weighted and added up
Each signal becomes a 0-100 risk score on a straight line between a calm value and a risky value. The meter is the weighted average. Weights reflect how strongly the research ties each signal to retirement outcomes.
Stock valuations (Shiller CAPE)
35%Calm at 15Risky at 35The price of the S&P 500 divided by ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings. In the long US record, a high CAPE at the start of retirement has gone with lower returns over the next decade and lower safe withdrawal rates. It is the strongest single timing input in the research, so it carries the most weight.
Source: Robert Shiller's monthly data (shillerdata.com), with today's value estimated from the latest S&P 500 close (FRED: SP500).
Distance from the market high
20%Calm at 35%Risky at 0%How far the S&P 500 sits below its all-time high. Retiring right at a peak leaves the most room to fall in the early years, when losses hurt a withdrawal plan most. Retiring after a big fall means some of the damage has already happened.
Source: S&P 500 daily close (FRED: SP500) and Shiller's monthly prices for the long history.
Real interest rates (10-year TIPS)
15%Calm at 2.5%Risky at -0.5%The after-inflation yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected bonds. Higher real yields mean the safe part of a portfolio pays more, and a new retiree can lock in inflation-proof income. Near-zero or negative real yields made retiring harder in 2012 and 2020-21.
Source: 10-Year TIPS yield (FRED: DFII10 daily, FII10 monthly). Before 2003, estimated as the 10-year Treasury yield minus CPI inflation.
Inflation (CPI, past 12 months)
10%Calm at 2.5%Risky at 7%High inflation early in retirement raises every withdrawal that follows, and has often hurt stocks and bonds at the same time. The worst US retirement start dates on record (the mid-1960s) began with rising inflation.
Source: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (FRED: CPIAUCSL), change over 12 months.
Yield curve (10-year minus 3-month)
10%Calm at 1.5Risky at -0.5When short-term rates rise above long-term rates (an inverted curve), a recession has often followed within a year or two. The New York Fed uses this spread in its recession model.
Source: 10-Year Treasury minus 3-Month Treasury (FRED: T10Y3M daily, T10Y3MM monthly).
Jobs (Sahm rule, real time)
10%Calm at 0Risky at 0.5How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its low of the past year. A rise of 0.5 points has marked the start of every US recession since 1970. We use the real-time version, built only from data people had at the time.
Source: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (FRED: SAHMREALTIME).
| Low risk | 0–20 | Conditions have historically been kind to new retirees. |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate risk | 20–35 | A fairly ordinary backdrop. A sound plan should hold up. |
| High risk | 35–50 | Some warning signs. Worth building in extra cushion. |
| Very high risk | 50–65 | Several risk signs at once. Flexibility and a cash or bond buffer matter more. |
| Extreme risk | 65–100 | Conditions like the riskiest starts on record. Plan for a rough first decade. |
The dial gives each level an equal slice, like the Forest Service sign, so the pointer moves evenly within a level. The level cut-offs were set so the 2000 peak lands near the top of the dial.
Fine print
What the meter can't tell you
- It can't predict the market. High readings have been followed by good years, and low ones by bad years.
- Today's CAPE is an estimate: the latest S&P 500 close divided by Shiller's 10-year average real earnings for October 2026 (189.7). Shiller updates his file about once a month; his newest month uses an early-month price and estimated CPI.
- The history uses monthly average prices, which smooth fast crashes. The live reading uses daily closes, so it can move more than the chart.
- TIPS yields on FRED start in 2003. For 2000-2002 we estimate the real yield as the 10-year Treasury yield minus the past year's inflation.
- CPI and unemployment are published with a lag, so those signals can be a month or more behind the market ones. Each shows its own as-of date.
- Returns are for US stocks and 10-year Treasuries before fees and taxes. Your mix, your spending flexibility and other income (Social Security, a pension) change the picture.
- If a source fails, the meter keeps that signal's last good value and says so. It never fills a gap with a guess.
Want to see how much withdrawal rate your own plan can bear? Try the withdrawal rate explorer or read the 4% rule and its limits.
The research behind it
- Michael Kitces: Understanding Sequence of Return Risk & Safe Withdrawal Rates · Why the first decade of retirement drives the outcome, and how valuations relate to it.
- Early Retirement Now: Safe Withdrawal Rates, Part 3: Equity Valuation · Karsten Jeske's analysis of how the Shiller CAPE at retirement relates to the safe withdrawal rate.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator · The 10-year minus 3-month spread and recessions.
- FRED: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator · Claudia Sahm's unemployment-based recession signal.
- Robert Shiller: U.S. stock market data · Monthly S&P 500 prices, earnings, dividends, CPI and the CAPE since 1871.
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) series SP500, DFII10, FII10, CPIAUCSL, T10Y3M, T10Y3MM and SAHMREALTIME; Robert J. Shiller's market data. History rebuilt Oct 15, 2026.
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