4% rule Link to 4% rule
A rule of thumb from William Bengen's 1994 study of U.S. market history: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. With 50% to 75% in stocks, it lasted at least 30 years in every historical period he tested. The 1998 Trinity study reached similar results for 15- to 30-year periods.
Why it matters for FIRE: It's where “spending × 25” comes from. It's based on past U.S. returns, not a promise, and early retirees may need money to last longer than 30 years.
